Why the US Cannot Enter a Second Lockdown
The first lockdown lead to mass layoffs, a second would cause irreperable damage to the economy
The Coronavirus Lockdown was an unprecedented event that saw most of the world population under stay at home orders. Although quarantines are nothing new, usually it is contained to a small geographic area. In truth, the rapid spread of a deadly pathogen has been the cause of concern for many years due to globalization; such a spread has been conveyed for years in popular media such as “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes”, “The Last of Us”, “World War Z”, “Resident Evil”, and many other works. Despite these stay at home orders being enacted worldwide, different nations have seen varying degrees of success. For instance, New Zealand has effectively neutralized the coronavirus threat while countries such as the United States struggle with how to effectively reopen their economy while cases once again rise. Despite the rise in cases within the US, it is simply not possible to once again issue stay at home orders within the United States due to a weak economy and a populace that will not accept another lockdown.
The economic effect of the COVID-19 lockdown was widespread and felt by every American. Unemployment reached a high of 14.7%, which was the highest it had been since the Great Depression in the early 20th century which peaked at a rate of 25.6% (Iacurci). Many other Americans had to work from home, while others were tasked with working through a pandemic while putting their lives at risk every single day. The economy experienced a 16.4% drop in retail sales between March and April of 2020 (Iacurci), which naturally created a great deal of hardship for many businesses. A number of businesses simply could not survive the COVID-19 lockdown. Companies such as Pier 1 Imports have permanently closed their doors while others such as JC Penny have filed for bankruptcy. Now, these two brands were already in financial trouble before the pandemic, the lockdown simply expedited their demise.
Restaurants in particular were hard hit by the lockdown, with takeout as their only option of revenue, some closed their doors due to a lack of interest. Others see their profits reduced by a heavy margin as they had to rely on takeout orders. The strain put on small businesses can not be understated, many already have slim profits and the lockdown simply made it even more difficult just to survive. Simply put, closing the economy for another three months is not feasible without destroying millions of jobs in the process and putting America on a path towards another depression that will last a decade.
The lockdown that occurred in the United States was largely ineffective. American authorities submitted to an idea of mitigation by making “flattening the curve” their primary objective rather than eradication of COVID-19. As such, the lockdown was simply not strict enough. My own personal attitude weeks before lockdowns happened nationwide was that a strict lockdown for two to three weeks would stop the coronavirus before it spread out of control. This strict lockdown would see everything closed except necessities that had to remain open such as hospitals, grocery stores, etc. We had the infrastructure to make a great deal of our purchases online from local vendors; this needed to be pushed for in order to mitigate the amount of people out. Even then, it may be necessary to restrict the days that one could go and purchase groceries (similar to the gas rationing in the 70’s). It would be better to have a painful two to three weeks than a painful two years. The government simply failed to adequately assess this threat and failed terribly in containment. Furthermore, the lockdown simply started to become unbearable as the date for reopening the nation was repeatedly pushed back. Many began to worry about the security of their jobs or paying their bills as their sources of income dried up. Unemployment benefits and the bonus given to unemployment beneficiaries helped but was largely inadequate to quell the fears of most citizens. Furthermore, those who kept working were faced with continuous exposure to COVID-19 and feared for their lives every time they stepped out of the house.
If one thing is to be learned from Prohibition, it is that people will not accept something that was once legal to be made illegal. If this logic is applied to the lockdown, it can be deduced that after the end of the lockdown, when people taste freedom for the first time in months, they simply will not give that up again; especially not a few months after they had to give up their freedoms to stay at home. Furthermore, the American economy is dangerously close to collapse, another lockdown would plummet the country into a violent recession for the second time this century. The American people are still reeling from the psychological effects of the first lockdown and most people simply will not accept another lockdown. There were already a number of protests around the country during the height of the lockdown, it is simply foolish to think that the majority of Americans would abide by a second lockdown order. My social media feeds are filled with people who are going out with friends, having parties with families, and simply enjoying life. Now that they have this taste of freedom, they will not give it up again, especially so soon after the end of the first lockdown.
Due to the inherent failure of the American government, there are no good options left. The virus is far beyond contained and without a vaccine it will not be stopped. The only way to simultaneously allow the economy to thrive, allow American citizens to go out into public and live life (which will be very beneficial to mental health), and ensure the virus does not spread beyond the capabilities of the medical system; is to implement a few common sense protocols. The first of these is to require masks to be worn out in public. Personally, I loathe wearing masks; they make it quite difficult for me to breathe and the sweat that accumulates as a result is horrid. Yet these are small concessions to make in order to ensure public safety. Wearing a mask is not about me, it is about protecting others. It is about ensuring that I do not pass along the virus if I am asymptomatic or presymptomatic. If I spread the virus, I am in effect killing individuals I may or may not know and for what? So I am not inconvenienced? That is the inherent definition of being self centered. American society is not community focused, there is far more emphasis on the individual; as a result, we have created a society that cares more about our minor inconveniences than caring for our neighbors.
It is simply ludicrous that people somehow believe that their actions and refusal to wear masks will not affect anyone else. This virus began with one infection, one person was able to transmit this disease to the entire world and bring down entire nations’ economies. It is time to throw away our illogical selfish behaviors and work together towards a common goal; to not kill one another with a deadly pathogen.
Secondly, it is important to limit mass gatherings to a fraction of their pre-pandemic size in order to reduce the chance of infection. By limiting traffic in and out of stores, putting a temporary pause on live shows, and keeping other mass gatherings at a significantly lower capacity; there can be some semblance of normalcy with a mitigated risk of infection. It is rumored that Disney is going to cap their capacity at 30% of their normal capacity in order to ensure that social distancing can be adequately maintained. Furthermore, they are requiring masks to be worn within the parks and their shopping districts in addition to a temporary suspension of parades and fireworks, and temperature checks at all security checkpoints.
Currently, it is looking as if many states are going to once again issue partial or full stay at home orders. For example, on June 28, 2020; California governor Gavin Newsom issued an order for bars to close in a number of California counties, mere weeks after they were allowed to open (OC Register). San Antonio, Texas put stay at home orders back into effect late into the night on June 27 (Haworth). Cases are quickly spiraling out of control as states scramble to figure out what to do. It has proved difficult to enforce mask orders since many law enforcement agencies have not enforced this rule and there has been very little effort to fine those who break these orders. It is critical to enforce mask orders and fine those who break these orders and pose a threat to public safety. Without a widespread mask order being enforced, cases will continue to spiral out of control and a total lockdown will become the only option.
The government simply failed in adequately addressing this threat and did not act quickly enough to eradicate the virus in its infancy. The lockdown was not extensive enough to adequately limit infections or deaths. As a result it caused the lockdown to be prolonged which led to the people growing restless and demanding for the economy to be reopened. Now, cases are far worse than they were at the height of the lockdown. While other nations are reporting less new cases, the United States is simply getting worse and worse. This can only be characterized as a tremendous failure by all levels of government. The only way forward is to keep the economy open and use simple steps to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Furthermore, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, does not believe that a vaccine will be enough to quell the outbreak. He believes that the effectiveness of the vaccine will be around 70–75% (Cohen). Unfortunately, a recent CNN poll discovered that one third of the US population will make the choice to not get vaccinated. As a result of this, the US will not develop herd immunity but will still have sustained human to human transmission for quite some time (Cohen). Due to these figures, it is logical to assume that the virus will be an issue in American society for years to come, therefore it is paramount to learn to live with the virus in a safe manner. Simply closing down the country for two years will not suffice, it is time to face the facts and deploy policies that will keep the economy moving in a safe and effective manner.
Works Cited
Cohen, Elizabeth. “Fauci Says Covid-19 Vaccine May Not Get US to Herd Immunity If Too Many People Refuse to Get It” CNN, Cable News Network, 29 June 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/06/28/health/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-contact-tracing-aspen/index.html.
Guzman, Richard. “Bars Are Preparing to Reopen: Here’s What We Know about When That Will Happen.” Orange County Register, Orange County Register, 12 June 2020, www.ocregister.com/2020/06/11/bars-are-preparing-to-reopen-heres-what-we-know-about-when-that-will-happen/.
Haworth, Jon. “Coronavirus Updates: 7 States Hit Record High for New Cases of COVID-19.” ABC7 Los Angeles, 28 June 2020, abc7.com/coronavirus-updates-7-states-hit-record-high-for-new-cases-of-covid-19/6277641/.
Iacurci, Greg. “Unemployment Is Nearing Great Depression Levels. Here’s How the Eras Are Similar — and Different.” CNBC, CNBC, 10 June 2020, www.cnbc.com/2020/05/19/unemployment-today-vs-the-great-depression-how-do-the-eras-compare.html.
